The NOAA Just predicted the 2010 hurricane season could be one of the most active in recent memory. How does this affect cruise planning?
The Nation Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in collaboration with the National Weather Service, just predicted that the 2010 hurricane season, effective from June 1st through November 30th, will be more active than the typical hurricane season.
Hurricane seasons typically occur during years of La Nina, which is defined as a lower surface temperature, typically three to five degrees Celsius. The effect of these conditions is a typically wet winter in the U.S. particularly in the Midwest, and an increased likelihood of hurricanes as these weather systems head towards the Atlantic and combine with tropical air coming from Africa.
La Nina is the opposite weather pattern to the more well known "El Nino" which is defined as a higher sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean and a strong current heading East close to the equator.
What does it mean to predict an active hurricane season? The average hurricane season contains 11 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), six hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher) and two major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph).
But for 2010 the NOAA is calling for 14 to 23 named storms, including 8 to 14 hurricanes of which 3 to 7 could be major hurricanes . The NOAA says these conditions would create one of the most active hurricane seasons on record.
Now - to be perfectly clear, the NOAA is often wrong; not because they don't know what they are doing, but because predicting weather is incredibly difficult. In 2006, for example, NOAA called for "a very active 2006 season, with 13-16 named storms, 8-10 hurricanes, and 4-6 major hurricanes."
During the 2006 hurricane season there were only nine named-storms, five hurricanes, and two major hurricanes - none of which hit the U.S.
It sounds odd, but we normally do recommend booking cruises during hurricane season. Why? Because hurricane season is no secret, especially to the number one cruise market - -Florida, but the main reason is that we often see bargain prices. Now, I realize price alone isn't a good reason to recommend taking a cruise during a major storm, but the point is that cruise ships are experts at avoiding these storms, so you should still have a great cruise. You just have to accept the possibility of a little uncertainty.
Source: cruisemates.com/articles/feature/Hurricane-cruising-2010-052710.cfm
